Since Gordon Moore posited the exponential development of transistors in his 1965 paper, much of technological advancement and adoption has followed a version of his law: the cost of lithium-ion batteries dropped by 97%; utility-scale solar’s plummeted by 85%; DNA sequencing’s fell by 5 orders of magnitude. It took Netflix 3.5 years to reach 1 million users, Spotify 5 months, and ChatGPT 5 days. This is all now common knowledge.
Exponentials also apply to our universal challenges. James Hansen – the scientist famous for warning the US Congress about climate change in 1988 – described the consequences of global warming in exponential terms. His timelines for catastrophic events such as superstorms are much quicker than what the IPCC anticipates. Next to this, the global population has grown so fast in the last century that the now ageing population is putting unsustainable pressure on economic and political systems. And we have all witnessed firsthand how unexpected pandemics can disrupt our world at equally exponential rates.
In short, systems evolution accelerates while our timescales to react tighten.
The light on the horizon & the opportunity
For the first time in history, however, the scale and urgency of our universal challenges is matched by the vision, ambition and capacity of individuals to build step-change solutions. They alter global trajectories, and chart courses to futures we can all aspire to live in.
At the same time, macro trends converge to open new and often massive market opportunities for these entrepreneurs. Global demographic shifts combine with new consumer preferences, corporate commitments and regulatory changes to open trillions of dollars of opportunity at the intersection of sustainability (in the broadest sense of the word) and technology.